The 2023 playoffs taught expensive lessons about variance and the importance of staying disciplined through swings. Overall I finished slightly profitable, but only because late-series hedges saved poorly positioned futures bets.

Hedging Philosophy

I entered playoffs opposed to hedging, thinking it reflected lack of conviction. Reality taught me that hedging profitable futures positions as odds shift is smart bankroll management, not weakness. Locking in guaranteed profit beats risking it on final variance.